Early Vote for Upcoming Election

Published on 29 October 2022 at 16:16

The early vote for the upcoming election is usually a good indicator of how the results may shake up. Early voting has historically favored democrats and thus far this year, it is not much different. The key is to compare this year with the early vote results from 2018. Only states that provide demographic statistics such as party affiliation, gender, ethnicity, and age show enough data to prognosticate how races are shaping up. Unfortunately, fewer than half the state offers this data and most states that provide this data do not have any highly contested statewide races. Up to this point, I would say democrats have an advantage in most states that have hotly contested statewide elections. That said, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida favor the republicans. Each passing day seems to be showing progress towards the GOP, but things look good for democrats in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Oregon. Of note, the few states that provide the age of voters shows that younger voters are not showing up. In 2018, 27% of the early vote electorate was from people under 40. This year, in the same four states, the under 40 electorate is comprised of less than 12% of the turnout. This can still change, but the younger electorate is one of the democrats best voting bloc.  Gender and ethnicity turnout is about the same between 2018 and 2022. With a week to go in the early vote, a lot can change.  Stay tuned. 

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