2022 Midterm Projections

Published on 6 November 2022 at 16:03

Based on polling and demographic data for early voting in several states, I can make some predictions for statewide senator and governor races. I evaluate trends between 2018 midterm voting compared to 2022 data. It is certainly not an exact science:

Florida: DeSantis and Rubio will win handily

North Carolina: Bud

Georgia: Kemp and Walker in a December Special Election since no one will get 50% of the vote. 

Nevada: Laxalt and Lombardo

Pennsylvania: Fetterman and Shapiro

Arizona:  Lake and Kelly

Oregon: Drazan

Colorado: Bennet

New Mexico: Grisham 

Michigan: Whitmer


I do not have any demographic data for Ohio, New York, Minnesota, Connecticut, and Texas, but I think Vance, Hochul, Walz, Blumenthal, and Abbott win respectively.  They are well ahead in most polls. 


My best guess of some races that are dead heats in the polls that I have no demographic data:

Wisconsin: Johnson and Michaels 

Washington: Murray

New Hampshire: Bolic 


House Prediction:

Republicans will win at least 240 of the 435 races.


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