Based on polling and demographic data for early voting in several states, I can make some predictions for statewide senator and governor races. I evaluate trends between 2018 midterm voting compared to 2022 data. It is certainly not an exact science:
Florida: DeSantis and Rubio will win handily
North Carolina: Bud
Georgia: Kemp and Walker in a December Special Election since no one will get 50% of the vote.
Nevada: Laxalt and Lombardo
Pennsylvania: Fetterman and Shapiro
Arizona: Lake and Kelly
Oregon: Drazan
Colorado: Bennet
New Mexico: Grisham
Michigan: Whitmer
I do not have any demographic data for Ohio, New York, Minnesota, Connecticut, and Texas, but I think Vance, Hochul, Walz, Blumenthal, and Abbott win respectively. They are well ahead in most polls.
My best guess of some races that are dead heats in the polls that I have no demographic data:
Wisconsin: Johnson and Michaels
Washington: Murray
New Hampshire: Bolic
House Prediction:
Republicans will win at least 240 of the 435 races.
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